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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.49vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+6.69vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.38vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+4.78vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.47+8.91vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.93+2.96vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.69+2.86vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.91vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.68+4.44vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.54-3.11vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.57vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.49-4.84vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.59+0.56vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.78-1.20vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-8.29vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.34-1.52vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.35-9.52vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-5.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.78Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.91Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.96Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.86Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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5.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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13.44William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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6.89Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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13.56Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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12.8Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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14.48Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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12.9Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 18.1% | 20.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.2% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gray Benson | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Camden Ward | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 16.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 17.4% | 24.7% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.