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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.63+5.56vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.93+7.19vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.54+3.83vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+4.40vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.63+1.40vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.42vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.78+6.03vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.75vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.69+0.85vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.68+3.54vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.93-1.95vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47+2.33vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.49-6.32vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-8.97vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.35-7.69vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.34-1.52vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-3.86vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.59-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.19Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.83Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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6.4George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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13.03Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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7.25SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.85Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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13.54William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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9.05Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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14.33Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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5.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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14.48Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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13.14Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.53Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Kavle | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 11.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 13.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 16.6% | 22.7% |
| Gray Benson | 9.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 15.0% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 16.7% | 25.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 10.8% |
| Camden Ward | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.