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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+7.71vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.35+5.64vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.63+3.48vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.69+5.76vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.54+1.61vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.63+0.35vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.93+1.98vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93+0.85vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.83vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.78+3.24vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.54vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.49-4.83vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.68+0.27vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.81-1.26vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.59-1.27vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.47-1.86vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.34-2.51vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-11.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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7.64University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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6.48George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.76Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.61Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.35Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.98Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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13.24Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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7.46SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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13.27William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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12.74Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.73Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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14.14Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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14.49Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.6% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Gray Benson | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 12.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.5% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 8.8% |
| Camden Ward | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 21.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 26.8% |
| Will Murray | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.