← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+7.60vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.32vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University1.93+5.98vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.63+2.31vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University2.54+1.62vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.93+2.82vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.66vs Predicted
-
8Hampton University0.81+4.53vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.19-1.07vs Predicted
-
10Virginia Tech0.47+3.73vs Predicted
-
11Webb Institute1.69-1.21vs Predicted
-
12Washington College0.59+1.46vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University2.63-6.72vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Naval Academy2.49-7.41vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University0.78-2.33vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University0.34-2.00vs Predicted
-
17William and Mary-1.96+0.45vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania2.83-12.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
-
5.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
8.98Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
6.31George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
-
6.62Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
-
8.82Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
6.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
12.53Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
-
7.93SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
-
13.73Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
-
9.79Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
13.46Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
-
6.28Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
-
6.59U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
-
12.67Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
-
14.0Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
-
17.45William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
-
5.59University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 10.9% | 1.9% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 18.3% | 20.7% | 4.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 19.6% | 3.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 1.8% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 16.3% | 24.9% | 5.0% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 83.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.