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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.19+7.09vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.46vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.31vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+4.31vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.54+1.59vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.63+0.34vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+1.81vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.63-1.78vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.69+0.62vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49-3.01vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-5.19vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-2.92vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.47+0.47vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.78-1.54vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.59-1.72vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.34-1.96vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-4.25vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.96-0.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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6.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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6.59Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.34Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.81Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.22George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.62Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.99U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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5.81University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.47Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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12.46Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.28Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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14.04Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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12.75Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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17.38William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.1% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.2% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 20.4% | 3.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% |
| Camden Ward | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 16.1% | 18.0% | 2.8% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 17.3% | 25.4% | 5.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.3% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 83.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.