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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.51vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.19+6.12vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+5.97vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.63vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.15vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.27vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.93+1.82vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.29vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.63-2.73vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69-0.08vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.76-5.00vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.54-5.13vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.78-0.56vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-0.74vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-2.44vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.59-2.79vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.35-1.60vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.96-0.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.12SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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8.97Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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5.63University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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5.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.82Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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6.27Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.92Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.87Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.44Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.26Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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12.56Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.21Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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15.4Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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17.32William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.4% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 8.3% | 1.6% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 18.5% | 14.6% | 3.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 9.7% | 1.3% |
| Camden Ward | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 3.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 42.0% | 12.4% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 9.6% | 78.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.