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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.53vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+7.90vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.19+5.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.62vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+3.69vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.81+6.58vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.82vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.78vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-0.71vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.93-0.99vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.54-4.27vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.63-5.37vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.76-7.17vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.78-1.62vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.59-1.86vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.47-2.44vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.35-1.60vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.96-0.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.9Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.01SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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5.62University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.69Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.58Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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9.01Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.73Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.63Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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12.38Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.14Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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13.56Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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15.4Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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17.3William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.9% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.9% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 11.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| Camden Ward | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 17.0% | 13.4% | 2.2% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 20.2% | 15.6% | 3.3% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 40.8% | 12.6% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 10.5% | 78.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.