← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Maritime College2.19+7.09vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.37vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.79+2.99vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.20vs Predicted
-
5Webb Institute1.69+4.56vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy2.49+0.79vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.78+5.58vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University2.63-1.70vs Predicted
-
9Virginia Tech0.47+4.54vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University2.63-3.44vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.83-5.17vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-3.30vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.93-4.32vs Predicted
-
14Hampton University0.81-1.72vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University0.34-1.20vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University1.93-7.15vs Predicted
-
17Washington College0.09-2.46vs Predicted
-
18William and Mary-1.96-0.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.09SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
-
5.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
5.99Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
-
6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
9.56Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
6.79U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
-
12.58Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
-
6.3George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
-
13.54Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
-
6.56Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
-
5.83University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
8.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
-
8.68Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
12.28Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
-
13.8Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
-
8.85Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
14.54Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
-
17.34William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 10.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 17.7% | 3.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 8.8% | 1.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 18.0% | 30.7% | 6.8% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 82.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.