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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+5.51vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.83vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+5.57vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.23vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.79+0.75vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.81vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.63-0.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.49-1.29vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.69+0.59vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.19-1.94vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.47+2.60vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-2.90vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.93-4.32vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.09+0.31vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-2.44vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.78-3.28vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.34-3.05vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-1.96-0.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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6.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.75Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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5.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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9.59Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.06SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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13.6Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.1Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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14.31Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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12.56Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.72Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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13.95Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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17.34William and Mary-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.4% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.1% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 17.6% | 19.3% | 4.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 19.2% | 26.3% | 6.5% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 1.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 2.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 22.8% | 5.0% |
| Daniel Shpigel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 80.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.