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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+3.18vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.41+1.05vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.43+2.03vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.05-0.23vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University-0.57+5.13vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.01+2.73vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.94-3.05vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.07+0.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.15vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+1.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.93+0.06vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.38-2.13vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.77-6.17vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.64-0.02vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.77-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.1%1st Place
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3.05Stanford University2.410.3%1st Place
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5.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.430.1%1st Place
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3.77California Poly Maritime Academy2.050.2%1st Place
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10.13Western Washington University-0.570.0%1st Place
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8.73San Diego State University-0.010.0%1st Place
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3.95University of Hawaii1.940.2%1st Place
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8.88University of California at San Diego-0.070.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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11.04University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Southern California-0.380.0%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Los Angeles0.770.0%1st Place
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13.98California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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12.66Arizona State University-1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 15.0% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 26.0% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 8.5% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 17.0% | 17.8% | 16.7% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 2.0% |
| Ian Collignon | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Owen Lahr | 16.3% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 14.5% | 5.4% |
| Jonah Brees | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 17.6% | 16.1% | 5.8% |
| Eleanor Desai | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Drew Wolf | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 61.9% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 30.3% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.