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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.35+1.46vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.61+4.25vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.40+3.88vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.26+0.67vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.73-1.37vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.43+0.89vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.10+1.41vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia-0.31+0.85vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.09-0.70vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii0.61-3.67vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-0.18vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.76+0.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.14vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.02-0.79vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-3.11-0.04vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46University of Hawaii2.350.4%1st Place
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6.25Salve Regina University0.610.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Hawaii0.400.0%1st Place
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4.67University of Hawaii1.260.1%1st Place
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3.63Salve Regina University1.730.2%1st Place
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6.89Western Washington University0.430.0%1st Place
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8.41University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.85University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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8.3University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Hawaii0.610.1%1st Place
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10.82University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Davis-1.760.0%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.21University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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14.96University of California at Berkeley-3.110.0%1st Place
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11.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Patton | 37.2% | 24.1% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Frances Tarpey-Schwed | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Carew | 9.5% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Cronin | 18.5% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 16.2% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Emily Smith | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Theodore Knobel | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 19.3% | 24.1% | 11.1% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 18.4% | 25.8% | 16.7% |
| John Cornet | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 7.1% | 17.6% | 63.9% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 17.1% | 14.5% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.