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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.73+2.65vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.43+4.98vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.35-0.46vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+6.42vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.61+1.52vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.26-1.18vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.40+0.26vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.09+0.53vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii0.61-3.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.02+2.73vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.31-2.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.55-2.98vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.76-0.77vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-2.69vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Salve Regina University1.730.2%1st Place
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6.98Western Washington University0.430.0%1st Place
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2.54University of Hawaii2.350.3%1st Place
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10.42University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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6.52Salve Regina University0.610.1%1st Place
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4.82University of Hawaii1.260.1%1st Place
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7.26University of Hawaii0.400.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.61University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.6University of Hawaii0.610.1%1st Place
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13.73University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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9.3University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.02University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.23University of California at Davis-1.760.0%1st Place
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12.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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11.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Cronin | 19.1% | 19.7% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Patton | 34.1% | 24.9% | 17.1% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 6.0% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Carew | 10.1% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frances Tarpey-Schwed | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Smith | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Theodore Knobel | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 19.9% | 41.0% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 19.8% | 27.6% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 17.4% | 18.5% | 14.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.