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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.73+2.51vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.43+4.70vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.61+3.23vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.35-1.48vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.61+1.25vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.26-1.34vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.40-0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.09+0.17vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-0.74vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.31-1.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.02+2.05vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74+0.59vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.76-0.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-4.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-4.09vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-3.11-1.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.51Salve Regina University1.730.2%1st Place
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6.7Western Washington University0.430.1%1st Place
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6.23University of Hawaii0.610.1%1st Place
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2.52University of Hawaii2.350.3%1st Place
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6.25Salve Regina University0.610.1%1st Place
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4.66University of Hawaii1.260.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Hawaii0.400.1%1st Place
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8.17University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.96University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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13.05University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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12.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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12.63University of California at Davis-1.760.0%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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10.91University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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14.98University of California at Berkeley-3.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Cronin | 19.5% | 19.6% | 18.3% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Theodore Knobel | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 34.6% | 25.3% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 5.0% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Carew | 10.4% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frances Tarpey-Schwed | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Smith | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 18.1% | 27.3% | 14.7% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 20.6% | 18.7% | 11.4% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 21.7% | 9.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 1.1% |
| John Cornet | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 62.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.