← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at San Diego0.01+4.31vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+1.15vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii1.15+0.21vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Los Angeles1.06-0.64vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley0.73-1.14vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+0.01vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.18+0.39vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-0.35vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University-0.75-2.17vs Predicted
-
10University of California at San Diego-2.41-0.53vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.31University of California at San Diego0.010.1%1st Place
-
3.15University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.2%1st Place
-
3.21University of Hawaii1.150.2%1st Place
-
3.36University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
-
3.86University of California at Berkeley0.730.2%1st Place
-
6.01University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
-
7.39University of California at Santa Barbara-1.180.0%1st Place
-
7.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
-
6.83Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
-
9.47University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
-
9.75University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenja Leonard | 5.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Molly Coghlin | 22.6% | 19.9% | 18.9% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 20.3% | 20.4% | 19.7% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 20.6% | 17.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 15.4% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Lekha Sapers | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 17.2% | 22.1% | 13.6% | 4.7% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 20.4% | 17.9% | 5.7% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 18.3% | 15.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 28.7% | 37.6% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 24.6% | 47.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.