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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+2.27vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.15+1.13vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+3.13vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.01+1.41vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-1.18+2.48vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.73-2.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.06-3.84vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-0.36vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-2.41+0.52vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.75-3.35vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.2%1st Place
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3.13University of Hawaii1.150.2%1st Place
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6.13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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5.41University of California at San Diego0.010.1%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Santa Barbara-1.180.0%1st Place
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3.88University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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3.16University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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7.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.52University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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6.65Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Coghlin | 19.0% | 21.5% | 18.4% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 23.4% | 19.4% | 18.8% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 17.8% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Svenja Leonard | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 16.3% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Lekha Sapers | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 21.3% | 15.1% | 5.6% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 14.0% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 22.8% | 21.4% | 17.3% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 17.8% | 20.7% | 17.8% | 4.9% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 13.4% | 27.2% | 40.6% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 7.7% | 1.6% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 26.7% | 45.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.