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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.15+2.17vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.01+3.26vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-0.75+3.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-0.69vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.73-1.18vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara-1.18+1.63vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-1.21vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.06-4.82vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-1.26vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-0.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.41-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17University of Hawaii1.150.2%1st Place
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5.26University of California at San Diego0.010.1%1st Place
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6.86Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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3.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.2%1st Place
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3.82University of California at Berkeley0.730.2%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Santa Barbara-1.180.0%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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3.18University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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7.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercy Tangredi | 20.5% | 21.4% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Svenja Leonard | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 18.5% | 16.8% | 9.5% | 1.8% |
| Molly Coghlin | 18.5% | 20.7% | 18.6% | 16.5% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 16.3% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lekha Sapers | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 21.8% | 16.1% | 5.4% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Marianna Shand | 22.4% | 21.6% | 17.8% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 18.3% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 7.8% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 21.5% | 50.4% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 31.9% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.