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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.34vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.15+1.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+0.28vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.01+1.43vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+2.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.73-2.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.18+0.43vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-2.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-2.41+0.53vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.75-3.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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3.1University of Hawaii1.150.2%1st Place
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3.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.2%1st Place
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5.43University of California at San Diego0.010.1%1st Place
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7.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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3.87University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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7.43University of California at Santa Barbara-1.180.0%1st Place
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5.9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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9.53University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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6.66Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 19.2% | 18.9% | 19.5% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 24.3% | 20.8% | 17.7% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 18.9% | 21.1% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Svenja Leonard | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 21.9% | 18.0% | 6.9% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 14.9% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 17.2% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lekha Sapers | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 20.7% | 13.3% | 5.2% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 28.6% | 39.8% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 18.9% | 14.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 12.1% | 27.2% | 45.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.