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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+2.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+1.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.73+0.98vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+2.13vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.15-1.89vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.01-0.71vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+0.55vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.75-1.40vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-1.18-1.41vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.41-0.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.2%1st Place
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3.24University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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6.13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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3.11University of Hawaii1.150.2%1st Place
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5.29University of California at San Diego0.010.1%1st Place
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7.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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6.6Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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7.59University of California at Santa Barbara-1.180.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Coghlin | 20.4% | 20.7% | 17.4% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 20.8% | 20.9% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 13.4% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 23.4% | 22.2% | 17.6% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Svenja Leonard | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Macy Rowe | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 20.5% | 16.6% | 5.5% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| Lekha Sapers | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 19.9% | 21.6% | 14.7% | 6.2% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 29.0% | 38.0% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 25.6% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.