Race 1A

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Andrew Ciszewski 10.7% 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.3% 10.0% 9.4% 8.3% 8.4% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 0.3%
Taylor Hasson 10.4% 8.7% 10.7% 9.0% 10.9% 11.1% 7.9% 9.3% 7.7% 7.2% 4.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Mateo Rodriguez 12.4% 13.8% 12.6% 12.0% 10.0% 11.5% 9.1% 6.7% 5.3% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
Peter McGonagle 5.0% 7.2% 6.8% 8.0% 8.3% 6.9% 9.2% 9.7% 10.4% 11.4% 9.1% 7.3% 0.7%
Emma Tallman 10.1% 11.2% 10.0% 10.0% 9.3% 9.7% 9.2% 8.7% 8.8% 6.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.3%
Scott Harris 16.9% 14.6% 13.2% 13.6% 8.9% 10.3% 7.1% 5.9% 4.5% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Zachariah Schemel 6.9% 6.3% 6.6% 5.8% 9.0% 6.4% 8.5% 9.8% 10.4% 11.4% 11.6% 6.5% 0.8%
Stewart Gurnell 10.7% 10.5% 9.7% 11.7% 9.2% 9.8% 11.6% 8.5% 6.0% 5.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.1%
Aden Anderson 2.8% 3.6% 2.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 6.2% 7.6% 10.9% 18.0% 27.0% 6.1%
Will Cornell 2.7% 2.8% 3.7% 2.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.8% 7.4% 8.1% 10.0% 15.9% 26.5% 8.1%
Brian Fox 6.2% 6.6% 8.3% 7.8% 9.0% 7.9% 10.0% 10.6% 10.9% 9.1% 8.2% 4.3% 1.1%
Sherman Thompson 4.8% 4.4% 5.6% 6.0% 7.4% 8.0% 7.5% 8.2% 10.8% 12.7% 12.6% 10.7% 1.3%
Jason Elliott 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.9% 4.1% 8.2% 80.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.