Race 3A

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Taylor Hasson 10.2% 9.7% 11.8% 8.3% 9.5% 11.2% 10.2% 8.4% 7.5% 6.2% 4.3% 2.2% 0.5%
Andrew Ciszewski 9.5% 11.3% 8.8% 11.1% 11.2% 10.4% 8.5% 8.4% 7.0% 8.0% 3.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Stewart Gurnell 9.8% 10.1% 11.5% 11.0% 9.9% 8.8% 11.0% 8.7% 6.3% 6.9% 4.1% 1.8% 0.1%
Scott Harris 16.4% 14.3% 14.2% 12.6% 10.5% 9.3% 7.5% 5.8% 5.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Emma Tallman 10.6% 10.6% 10.4% 8.9% 10.0% 8.8% 9.9% 9.7% 8.6% 6.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.1%
Sherman Thompson 5.8% 5.1% 6.3% 6.9% 7.2% 7.7% 7.2% 9.6% 11.9% 11.4% 10.8% 8.6% 1.5%
Mateo Rodriguez 14.3% 13.2% 12.6% 11.5% 10.8% 9.9% 7.7% 8.1% 5.5% 3.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Aden Anderson 2.7% 3.5% 2.7% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 5.4% 6.9% 8.9% 11.5% 16.1% 25.1% 6.2%
Will Cornell 2.4% 3.5% 2.5% 3.2% 4.6% 3.4% 4.8% 5.4% 8.3% 9.8% 15.9% 28.2% 8.0%
Peter McGonagle 7.0% 5.8% 6.6% 8.1% 8.4% 9.3% 9.6% 8.3% 8.2% 10.3% 10.5% 6.4% 1.5%
Jason Elliott 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 5.0% 8.3% 79.3%
Brian Fox 6.1% 6.7% 5.6% 8.7% 8.2% 7.5% 8.8% 10.1% 10.8% 9.8% 9.9% 6.6% 1.2%
Zachariah Schemel 4.8% 5.8% 6.8% 5.7% 6.1% 9.3% 9.0% 9.4% 10.3% 12.2% 11.7% 7.6% 1.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.