Race 4A

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sherman Thompson 5.3% 4.3% 4.2% 8.5% 8.7% 6.8% 5.3% 10.9% 10.6% 12.8% 11.7% 9.5% 1.4%
Scott Harris 16.6% 13.7% 14.6% 13.3% 9.6% 8.7% 7.0% 6.9% 4.9% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Emma Tallman 8.2% 11.6% 11.2% 8.4% 8.8% 10.3% 9.7% 10.0% 7.7% 6.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.1%
Taylor Hasson 9.1% 11.1% 10.2% 10.4% 9.8% 10.2% 8.4% 8.1% 9.3% 5.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.2%
Stewart Gurnell 11.7% 11.0% 9.8% 10.7% 10.2% 8.7% 11.1% 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 3.8% 1.9% 0.1%
Zachariah Schemel 6.1% 6.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.3% 7.9% 8.1% 10.5% 9.9% 11.3% 9.8% 8.4% 1.0%
Will Cornell 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 4.7% 2.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.6% 7.8% 9.9% 16.4% 27.4% 7.0%
Mateo Rodriguez 14.2% 13.1% 12.9% 10.9% 10.8% 11.3% 8.0% 6.9% 5.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Brian Fox 6.7% 7.0% 5.8% 6.8% 9.0% 7.3% 10.0% 9.4% 10.1% 10.1% 9.7% 6.9% 1.2%
Aden Anderson 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% 2.4% 4.0% 3.8% 6.2% 5.0% 8.2% 12.0% 16.6% 25.7% 7.0%
Peter McGonagle 6.2% 6.1% 9.5% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 9.8% 10.1% 9.9% 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 0.7%
Jason Elliott 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.6% 7.8% 81.1%
Andrew Ciszewski 9.7% 9.5% 9.1% 10.0% 11.1% 10.1% 10.6% 8.3% 8.2% 6.2% 4.8% 2.2% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.