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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.17+2.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.40+6.48vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.28+3.05vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.07+2.59vs Predicted
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5Florida State University1.97-0.90vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.33-0.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-0.81vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.78-0.69vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.60-3.83vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.52-1.91vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.09-1.87vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-0.28vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University0.42-4.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73College of Charleston2.170.2%1st Place
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8.48University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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6.05Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.59University of Michigan1.070.1%1st Place
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4.1Florida State University1.970.2%1st Place
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5.81North Carolina State University1.330.1%1st Place
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6.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.31Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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5.17College of Charleston1.600.1%1st Place
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8.09University of South Florida0.520.0%1st Place
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9.13Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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11.72Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.62Jacksonville University0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 20.1% | 17.8% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 6.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 18.3% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Celia Houston | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 5.3% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 19.4% | 11.3% |
| Madeleine Adams | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 62.8% |
| Patrick Barney | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 16.1% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.