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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.17+2.72vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.07+4.69vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.97+1.22vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.60+1.14vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.78+2.30vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.40+2.39vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida0.52+1.03vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-1.78vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.33-3.07vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.09-0.75vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.42-2.76vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-5.90vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.72College of Charleston2.170.2%1st Place
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6.69University of Michigan1.070.1%1st Place
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4.22Florida State University1.970.2%1st Place
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5.14College of Charleston1.600.1%1st Place
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7.3Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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8.03University of South Florida0.520.1%1st Place
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6.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.93North Carolina State University1.330.1%1st Place
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9.25Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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8.24Jacksonville University0.420.0%1st Place
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6.1Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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11.77Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 20.5% | 18.3% | 16.8% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Joey Meagher | 15.6% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Luke Hayes | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 6.1% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 5.3% |
| Celia Houston | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 21.1% | 12.5% |
| Patrick Barney | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 6.3% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Madeleine Adams | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 63.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.