Race 3B

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Celia Houston 7.5% 6.7% 10.4% 10.6% 8.0% 9.1% 9.5% 10.8% 9.2% 7.9% 6.2% 3.2% 0.9%
Hogan O'Donnell 8.3% 8.0% 10.2% 9.1% 10.7% 11.4% 9.0% 9.4% 9.0% 7.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.7%
Elizabeth Gildea 6.6% 8.9% 8.8% 11.0% 9.2% 10.9% 10.7% 9.5% 8.6% 6.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Joey Meagher 16.6% 16.9% 13.9% 11.9% 11.5% 8.5% 7.6% 6.5% 3.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Charles Mckenzie 21.5% 19.1% 14.1% 12.2% 11.9% 7.6% 5.5% 4.0% 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Emily Alfortish 10.9% 13.5% 11.9% 12.2% 10.2% 9.9% 8.6% 7.0% 6.8% 4.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Joe Serpa 8.8% 7.2% 6.9% 7.9% 9.0% 9.5% 9.5% 8.8% 10.4% 8.6% 7.8% 4.6% 1.0%
Chloe Sweeting 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.5% 5.1% 4.9% 9.0% 9.9% 9.3% 12.1% 12.8% 13.6% 4.0%
Luke Hayes 5.3% 5.0% 5.9% 6.2% 7.7% 8.1% 8.3% 10.1% 9.8% 10.0% 11.9% 8.1% 3.6%
Katherine Olsen 3.8% 4.2% 4.4% 3.7% 5.0% 6.3% 8.3% 7.7% 9.7% 12.2% 12.2% 14.8% 7.7%
Max Shapiro 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% 4.6% 4.8% 5.5% 4.8% 7.4% 9.4% 11.6% 13.9% 18.7% 11.3%
Patrick Barney 3.6% 2.8% 4.5% 4.0% 5.6% 6.9% 7.5% 7.1% 9.4% 11.1% 14.6% 15.8% 7.1%
Madeleine Adams 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 2.9% 4.3% 6.4% 14.4% 62.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.