Race 4B

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hogan O'Donnell 8.6% 8.2% 11.8% 9.5% 8.4% 10.1% 10.9% 10.5% 7.8% 6.1% 4.3% 3.1% 0.7%
Charles Mckenzie 20.0% 18.8% 15.8% 12.7% 10.3% 7.9% 6.5% 3.8% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Elizabeth Gildea 7.0% 8.5% 9.9% 10.4% 10.5% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.1% 7.1% 5.2% 2.7% 0.9%
Joey Meagher 16.4% 17.5% 12.7% 13.5% 9.8% 9.6% 7.5% 6.2% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
Joe Serpa 7.9% 7.1% 8.1% 8.2% 9.3% 8.4% 8.3% 10.4% 10.4% 9.4% 5.7% 5.4% 1.4%
Luke Hayes 5.6% 4.7% 6.6% 6.4% 7.0% 8.5% 9.4% 10.8% 10.2% 9.1% 10.7% 8.0% 3.0%
Emily Alfortish 13.2% 11.5% 11.5% 10.4% 11.0% 9.9% 10.1% 7.4% 6.6% 4.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1%
Katherine Olsen 3.7% 4.7% 3.8% 4.2% 5.3% 7.0% 6.5% 8.6% 9.9% 11.1% 14.9% 14.0% 6.3%
Max Shapiro 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 5.0% 6.2% 9.0% 11.4% 13.5% 20.5% 13.4%
Celia Houston 8.6% 7.5% 8.7% 9.7% 10.4% 10.1% 8.3% 9.3% 8.5% 7.3% 6.6% 3.8% 1.2%
Madeleine Adams 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.4% 4.7% 7.4% 15.8% 57.6%
Patrick Barney 3.3% 2.9% 4.1% 4.9% 6.3% 5.7% 7.3% 6.9% 10.1% 12.1% 14.6% 12.8% 9.0%
Chloe Sweeting 2.7% 4.4% 3.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.4% 8.5% 7.6% 9.5% 14.0% 13.0% 12.1% 6.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.