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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.17+2.81vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.07+4.63vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.60+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.52+4.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+0.53vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.33-0.12vs Predicted
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7Florida State University1.97-2.77vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28-2.00vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.40-0.45vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.09-0.72vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.78-3.72vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.42-3.40vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81College of Charleston2.170.2%1st Place
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6.63University of Michigan1.070.1%1st Place
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5.18College of Charleston1.600.1%1st Place
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8.24University of South Florida0.520.0%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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5.88North Carolina State University1.330.1%1st Place
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4.23Florida State University1.970.2%1st Place
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6.0Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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9.28Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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7.28Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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8.6Jacksonville University0.420.0%1st Place
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11.77Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 20.1% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 6.8% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Emily Alfortish | 9.7% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 4.8% |
| Jack Derry | 10.0% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Joey Meagher | 17.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 6.9% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 20.6% | 12.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Barney | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 7.2% |
| Madeleine Adams | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 15.1% | 62.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.