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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.17+2.73vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.97+2.12vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.78+4.37vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University0.42+4.31vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.60-0.06vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.33-0.25vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.01-0.37vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-2.57vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.07-2.41vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.52-2.03vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.09-2.05vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.40-3.53vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston-2.69-0.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73College of Charleston2.170.2%1st Place
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4.12Florida State University1.970.2%1st Place
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7.37Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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8.31Jacksonville University0.420.0%1st Place
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4.94College of Charleston1.600.1%1st Place
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5.75North Carolina State University1.330.1%1st Place
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6.63Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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5.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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6.59University of Michigan1.070.1%1st Place
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7.97University of South Florida0.520.0%1st Place
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8.95Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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12.73Texas A&M University at Galveston-2.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Mckenzie | 19.9% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 17.2% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Barney | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 17.0% | 1.4% |
| Emily Alfortish | 12.2% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 0.4% |
| Jack Derry | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 1.3% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 25.1% | 2.7% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 16.7% | 2.0% |
| Emily Gaskins | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 90.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.