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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.71+4.25vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+2.92vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+5.76vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.39+2.44vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.94+3.44vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.51+4.17vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.37-0.07vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.48+1.74vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.42+1.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+0.88vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.58-5.02vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-0.80vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.20-2.42vs Predicted
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14Harvard University1.85-5.66vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.06-3.99vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-3.40vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.59-4.04vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering-0.96-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25Yale University2.7113.8%1st Place
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4.92Yale University2.8515.3%1st Place
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8.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.9%1st Place
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6.44Dartmouth College2.399.4%1st Place
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8.44Roger Williams University1.945.0%1st Place
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10.17Tufts University1.514.0%1st Place
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6.93Brown University2.379.2%1st Place
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9.74Bowdoin College1.484.0%1st Place
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10.14University of Rhode Island1.423.4%1st Place
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10.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.7%1st Place
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5.98Boston College2.5811.8%1st Place
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11.2Northeastern University1.592.2%1st Place
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10.58Connecticut College1.202.9%1st Place
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8.34Harvard University1.855.3%1st Place
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11.01University of Vermont1.062.6%1st Place
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12.6Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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12.96Fairfield University0.591.3%1st Place
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16.67Olin College of Engineering-0.960.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.3% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Clark Morris | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 0.7% |
| Henry Lee | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% |
| Peter Busch | 11.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 8.2% |
| Bryce Vitiello | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 19.6% | 9.0% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 11.2% | 67.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.