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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.48+8.72vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.37+4.74vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.71+2.21vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+6.89vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.94+3.53vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85-1.12vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.58-0.96vs Predicted
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8Harvard University1.85+0.36vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.39-2.76vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+1.03vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.59+1.96vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.07+0.92vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.51-3.14vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.06-2.79vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-5.86vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.20-5.48vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.96-0.42vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.42-7.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.72Bowdoin College1.484.0%1st Place
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6.74Brown University2.378.9%1st Place
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5.21Yale University2.7113.1%1st Place
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10.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.5%1st Place
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8.53Roger Williams University1.944.9%1st Place
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4.88Yale University2.8514.8%1st Place
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6.04Boston College2.5810.0%1st Place
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8.36Harvard University1.855.7%1st Place
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6.24Dartmouth College2.3910.2%1st Place
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11.03Northeastern University1.592.5%1st Place
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12.96Fairfield University0.591.8%1st Place
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12.92Boston University1.071.7%1st Place
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9.86Tufts University1.513.9%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont1.063.7%1st Place
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9.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.0%1st Place
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10.52Connecticut College1.203.2%1st Place
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16.58Olin College of Engineering-0.960.7%1st Place
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10.19University of Rhode Island1.423.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.8% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 2.4% |
| Bryce Vitiello | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 17.2% | 8.5% |
| Porter Bell | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 18.1% | 7.8% |
| Clark Morris | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Ethan Burt | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 11.2% | 67.9% |
| Henry Lee | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.