← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston1.60+2.09vs Predicted
-
2College of Charleston1.65+0.99vs Predicted
-
3North Carolina State University1.17+0.88vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College0.72+0.83vs Predicted
-
5Clemson University-0.58+2.60vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College0.17-0.07vs Predicted
-
7Georgia Institute of Technology0.05-0.80vs Predicted
-
8The Citadel0.11-1.88vs Predicted
-
9Duke University-0.67-1.02vs Predicted
-
10University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.75+0.17vs Predicted
-
11University of Georgia-2.30+0.06vs Predicted
-
12Auburn University-1.27-2.63vs Predicted
-
13University of South Carolina-2.72-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.09College of Charleston1.600.2%1st Place
-
2.99College of Charleston1.650.3%1st Place
-
3.88North Carolina State University1.170.1%1st Place
-
4.83Dartmouth College0.720.1%1st Place
-
7.6Clemson University-0.580.0%1st Place
-
5.93Dartmouth College0.170.1%1st Place
-
6.2Georgia Institute of Technology0.050.1%1st Place
-
6.12The Citadel0.110.1%1st Place
-
7.98Duke University-0.670.0%1st Place
-
10.17University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.750.0%1st Place
-
11.06University of Georgia-2.300.0%1st Place
-
9.37Auburn University-1.270.0%1st Place
-
11.78University of South Carolina-2.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Alfortish | 24.3% | 20.7% | 19.5% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Homberger | 25.8% | 22.1% | 19.2% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Bailey | 13.9% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Vogel | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Bialek | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Rob Mailley | 6.6% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woerner | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lewis Bragg | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Nevin Williams | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 22.0% | 20.8% | 14.2% |
| Katie Kellam | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 18.0% | 28.9% | 26.8% |
| Joaquin Marquez | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 19.5% | 18.1% | 15.1% | 6.0% |
| Chad Callahan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 10.9% | 22.6% | 50.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.