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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+9.21vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.70+3.84vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.62+3.18vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.44+6.70vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.49+9.15vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.89+2.94vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.55-0.71vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.24+3.51vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+0.31vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.70-4.00vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28+0.61vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.44-0.82vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.93-4.42vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.73-4.64vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.65-5.11vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-5.55vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.77-7.43vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.30-6.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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5.84Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.18Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.7Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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14.15SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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8.94University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.51University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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9.31St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.0%1st Place
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6.0Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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11.61Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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11.18Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.58Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University1.730.0%1st Place
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9.89North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.0%1st Place
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9.57Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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11.25University of Wisconsin1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Houck | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 34.9% |
| Grace Gear | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% |
| Katherine Bennett | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Camille McGriff | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Abbie Carlson | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Hailey Feinzig | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.