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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida1.24+10.69vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.65+8.15vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.62+3.21vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.70+1.71vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.77+4.34vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.70-0.28vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.44+3.82vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.49+6.17vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+1.36vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-0.46vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.89-1.96vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.44-0.83vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-3.20vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.55-7.92vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.73-5.45vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.30-4.50vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.28-5.41vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.93-9.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.69University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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10.15North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.21Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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5.71Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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9.34Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.72Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.82Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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14.17SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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10.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.0%1st Place
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9.54St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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9.04University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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11.17Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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6.08Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.55George Washington University1.730.0%1st Place
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11.5University of Wisconsin1.300.0%1st Place
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11.59Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Stephanie Houck | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 34.4% |
| Camille McGriff | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| Katherine Bennett | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Grace Gear | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% |
| Piper Holthus | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Hailey Feinzig | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.