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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.71+4.10vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+6.79vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+1.95vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.03+3.71vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.39+1.40vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.58+0.12vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.51+3.14vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.20+2.60vs Predicted
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9Harvard University1.85-0.61vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.42+0.30vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.06+0.21vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-3.24vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.94-4.47vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering-0.96+2.56vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-3.82vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University-0.43-0.30vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College1.48-7.23vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1Yale University2.7113.8%1st Place
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8.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.1%1st Place
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4.95Yale University2.8515.3%1st Place
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7.71Brown University2.036.5%1st Place
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6.4Dartmouth College2.3910.1%1st Place
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6.12Boston College2.5810.5%1st Place
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10.14Tufts University1.513.6%1st Place
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10.6Connecticut College1.203.0%1st Place
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8.39Harvard University1.855.8%1st Place
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10.3University of Rhode Island1.423.3%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont1.061.8%1st Place
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8.76Boston University1.394.7%1st Place
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8.53Roger Williams University1.945.8%1st Place
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16.56Olin College of Engineering-0.960.1%1st Place
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11.18Northeastern University1.592.5%1st Place
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15.7Fairfield University-0.430.8%1st Place
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9.77Bowdoin College1.484.1%1st Place
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10.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.3% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Martins Atilla | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Henry Lee | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 21.2% | 57.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 1.9% |
| Jane Matthews | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 31.7% | 33.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.