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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+6.58vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.13+5.47vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.07+4.89vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+2.29vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.51+5.06vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+1.17vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.90+1.68vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.73+0.92vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.85-0.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.78vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University1.06+1.11vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.12-4.30vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-1.70vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.08-6.39vs Predicted
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15University of South Carolina0.72-1.66vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.28-1.02vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering0.52-2.92vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College0.24-2.70vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.51-4.83vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.60-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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7.47Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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10.06University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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7.17Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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8.68Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.92Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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8.52Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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12.11Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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7.7Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.3University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Naval Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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13.34University of South Carolina0.720.0%1st Place
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14.98Bates College0.280.0%1st Place
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14.08Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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15.3Dartmouth College0.240.0%1st Place
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14.17University of Wisconsin0.510.0%1st Place
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17.63Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Snead | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Hansen | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jed Bell | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Will Priebe | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Caden Scheiblauer | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Street | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 4.9% |
| Jack Valentino | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 13.3% |
| James Jagielski | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% |
| Martha Rand | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 14.4% |
| George Lockwood | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 7.8% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 46.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.