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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+5.13vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.85+6.62vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.51+7.30vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.32+6.92vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.22+2.11vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.73+3.25vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.90+1.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+0.96vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-1.52vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.08-2.30vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.07-3.23vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.13-4.37vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.52+1.53vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University1.06-2.01vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.12-7.44vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.51-1.80vs Predicted
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17University of South Carolina0.72-3.70vs Predicted
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18Bates College0.28-2.86vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College0.24-3.90vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.60-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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8.62Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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10.3University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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10.92University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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7.11Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.25Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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7.77University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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7.63Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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14.53Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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11.99Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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7.56Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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14.2University of Wisconsin0.510.0%1st Place
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13.3University of South Carolina0.720.0%1st Place
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15.14Bates College0.280.0%1st Place
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15.1Dartmouth College0.240.0%1st Place
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17.61Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harris Padegs | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Jed Bell | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.9% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Emma Snead | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caden Scheiblauer | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Hansen | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Jagielski | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Will Priebe | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| George Lockwood | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 8.1% |
| Ian Street | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 5.0% |
| Jack Valentino | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 13.8% |
| Martha Rand | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 12.7% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 46.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.