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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.85+7.52vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+4.11vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.51+7.09vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+4.31vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.08+2.53vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.32+4.84vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.73+2.24vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22-1.14vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.07-1.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-0.94vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.51+2.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-4.35vs Predicted
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13University of South Carolina0.72+0.50vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.12-6.67vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.13-7.60vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College0.24-1.19vs Predicted
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17Bates College0.28-2.34vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University1.06-6.11vs Predicted
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19Olin College of Engineering-0.65-1.68vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.60-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.52Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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6.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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10.09University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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8.31Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Naval Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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10.84University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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9.24Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.86Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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7.56University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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13.96University of Wisconsin0.510.0%1st Place
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7.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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13.5University of South Carolina0.720.0%1st Place
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7.33Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.4Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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14.81Dartmouth College0.240.0%1st Place
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14.66Bates College0.280.0%1st Place
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11.89Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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17.32Olin College of Engineering-0.650.0%1st Place
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17.34Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Padegs | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 12.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Caden Scheiblauer | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jed Bell | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| George Lockwood | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 5.0% |
| Emma Snead | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ian Street | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Will Priebe | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Hansen | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Martha Rand | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 8.9% |
| Jack Valentino | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 21.5% | 35.7% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 21.8% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.