← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University2.71+4.11vs Predicted
-
2Boston College2.58+4.00vs Predicted
-
3Yale University2.85+1.86vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College2.39+2.56vs Predicted
-
5Brown University2.03+2.84vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University1.51+3.98vs Predicted
-
71.42+3.38vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+2.77vs Predicted
-
9Bowdoin College1.48+0.79vs Predicted
-
10Northeastern University1.59+1.12vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University1.85-2.48vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-3.04vs Predicted
-
13Connecticut College1.20-2.51vs Predicted
-
14Roger Williams University1.94-5.61vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.39-6.20vs Predicted
-
16University of Vermont1.06-4.71vs Predicted
-
17Olin College of Engineering-0.96-0.53vs Predicted
-
18Fairfield University-0.43-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.11Yale University2.7112.7%1st Place
-
6.0Boston College2.589.9%1st Place
-
4.86Yale University2.8515.1%1st Place
-
6.56Dartmouth College2.399.8%1st Place
-
7.84Brown University2.037.4%1st Place
-
9.98Tufts University1.514.0%1st Place
-
10.381.423.6%1st Place
-
10.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.8%1st Place
-
9.79Bowdoin College1.483.6%1st Place
-
11.12Northeastern University1.592.6%1st Place
-
8.52Harvard University1.855.3%1st Place
-
8.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.7%1st Place
-
10.49Connecticut College1.203.6%1st Place
-
8.39Roger Williams University1.945.3%1st Place
-
8.8Boston University1.394.3%1st Place
-
11.29University of Vermont1.062.3%1st Place
-
16.47Olin College of Engineering-0.960.2%1st Place
-
15.66Fairfield University-0.430.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 12.7% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Martins Atilla | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Clark Morris | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Henry Lee | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 21.8% | 55.6% |
| Jane Matthews | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.