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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.93vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.48+7.90vs Predicted
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31.42+7.42vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.20+6.35vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.03+2.83vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.71-0.90vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.58-0.98vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-1.55vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.06+2.19vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.94-1.42vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-0.25vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-3.07vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-2.00vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-5.00vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.51-4.96vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.96+0.53vs Predicted
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17Harvard University1.85-8.71vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University-0.43-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93Yale University2.8516.4%1st Place
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9.9Bowdoin College1.483.0%1st Place
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10.421.423.1%1st Place
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10.35Connecticut College1.203.6%1st Place
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7.83Brown University2.036.0%1st Place
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5.1Yale University2.7115.6%1st Place
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6.02Boston College2.5810.3%1st Place
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6.45Dartmouth College2.398.6%1st Place
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11.19University of Vermont1.062.5%1st Place
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8.58Roger Williams University1.945.8%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.5%1st Place
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8.93Boston University1.395.1%1st Place
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11.0Northeastern University1.592.9%1st Place
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9.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.7%1st Place
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10.04Tufts University1.513.4%1st Place
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16.53Olin College of Engineering-0.960.3%1st Place
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8.29Harvard University1.855.5%1st Place
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15.67Fairfield University-0.430.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 16.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Henry Lee | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Martins Atilla | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 1.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Clark Morris | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 21.1% | 56.4% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Jane Matthews | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 32.8% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.