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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.83vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.83+5.97vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+2.18vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.69+4.57vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.69+7.72vs Predicted
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6University of South Carolina1.28+4.35vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19+3.97vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.24-1.72vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.63-4.02vs Predicted
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10Bates College0.97+1.61vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.78-2.68vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.96-0.10vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.46+1.02vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.72-1.35vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.23-0.52vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.31+2.40vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College0.53-3.70vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-6.67vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.18-8.30vs Predicted
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20University of Vermont1.27-9.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.97Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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5.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.57Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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12.72Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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10.35University of South Carolina1.280.0%1st Place
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10.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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6.28University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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4.98Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.61Bates College0.970.0%1st Place
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8.32Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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11.9Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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14.02Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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14.48University of South Florida0.230.0%1st Place
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18.4Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.310.0%1st Place
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13.3Dartmouth College0.530.0%1st Place
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11.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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10.7Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 12.6% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 13.6% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
| David Manley | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Celia Houston | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 14.2% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Colin Snow | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 6.4% |
| Tye Rubin | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 19.3% | 7.8% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 10.4% | 66.3% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| Aidan Brown | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Carter Brock | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.