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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.83vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.00vs Predicted
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3Harvard University1.69+5.68vs Predicted
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4University of South Carolina1.28+6.25vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.83+2.88vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.78+2.23vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.18+4.01vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.24-1.83vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.63-4.02vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University0.69+2.65vs Predicted
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11Olin College of Engineering0.46+2.62vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.97-0.20vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.27-2.43vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-2.86vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-4.45vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.23-1.53vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.96-5.58vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.72-5.31vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College0.17-4.45vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.31-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.68Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.25University of South Carolina1.280.0%1st Place
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7.88Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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8.23Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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11.01Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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6.17University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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4.98Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.65Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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13.62Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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11.8Bates College0.970.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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10.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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14.47University of South Florida0.230.0%1st Place
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11.42Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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12.69University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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14.55Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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18.49Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 12.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| David Manley | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carter Brock | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 14.8% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Colin Snow | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 5.3% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Celia Houston | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 18.0% | 7.9% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 1.2% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 8.1% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 11.7% | 66.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.