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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.78vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.18+8.70vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.83+5.07vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.24+2.35vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.96+6.50vs Predicted
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6University of South Carolina1.28+4.26vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.75vs Predicted
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8Harvard University1.69+0.30vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.78-0.91vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University0.69+2.82vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.63-5.87vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.27-1.55vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.46+0.95vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-2.87vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-4.44vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.97-4.47vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.23-2.63vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College0.17-3.23vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.72-6.47vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.31-1.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.7Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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8.07Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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6.35University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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11.5Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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10.26University of South Carolina1.280.0%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.3Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.09Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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12.82Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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5.13Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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10.45University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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13.95Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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11.53Bates College0.970.0%1st Place
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14.37University of South Florida0.230.0%1st Place
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14.77Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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18.5Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 11.6% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carter Brock | 4.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| David Manley | 2.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.3% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Mason Stang | 15.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Colin Snow | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Celia Houston | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 9.3% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 2.0% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 12.7% | 65.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.