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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.12vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.85vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.83+5.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+7.23vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.24+1.45vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.27+4.46vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.18+4.12vs Predicted
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8University of South Carolina1.28+2.12vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.63-4.04vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin0.72+2.71vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-1.92vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.97-0.12vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.78-4.46vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.17+0.69vs Predicted
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15Harvard University1.69-6.41vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.69-3.29vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering0.46-3.44vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.23-3.29vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.96-7.41vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.31-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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8.12Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.45University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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10.46University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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11.12Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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10.12University of South Carolina1.280.0%1st Place
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4.96Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.71University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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11.88Bates College0.970.0%1st Place
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8.54Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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14.69Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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8.59Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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12.71Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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13.56Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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14.71University of South Florida0.230.0%1st Place
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11.59Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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18.49Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 15.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Carter Brock | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| David Manley | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Mason Stang | 14.9% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 8.7% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Colin Snow | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 8.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 66.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.