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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.13vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.83+6.05vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.95vs Predicted
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4University of South Carolina1.28+6.36vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.69+7.79vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.63-0.83vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+4.61vs Predicted
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8Olin College of Engineering0.46+5.52vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.27+1.26vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.69-1.40vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College0.17+3.78vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.97-0.15vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.18-1.90vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.78-5.78vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.23-0.58vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.96-4.32vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-8.15vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.72-5.23vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island2.24-12.65vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.31-1.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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8.05Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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5.95U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.36University of South Carolina1.280.0%1st Place
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12.79Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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5.17Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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13.52Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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8.6Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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14.78Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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11.85Bates College0.970.0%1st Place
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11.1Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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8.22Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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14.42University of South Florida0.230.0%1st Place
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11.68Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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12.77University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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6.35University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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18.54Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 15.1% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Manley | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% |
| Mason Stang | 13.6% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Colin Snow | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 4.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 19.2% | 8.8% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Carter Brock | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 16.4% | 7.9% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 10.4% | 67.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.