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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.85+5.54vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy3.79+2.09vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.50+1.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley2.60+3.32vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.98-1.12vs Predicted
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6Stanford University4.21-2.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis2.13+1.66vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay2.30+0.22vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.24vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+0.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.87-1.61vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.35-0.99vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.12+0.43vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.32-1.02vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.08-9.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.850.1%1st Place
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4.09California Poly Maritime Academy3.790.2%1st Place
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4.87Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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3.88Stanford University3.980.2%1st Place
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3.3Stanford University4.210.2%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Davis2.130.0%1st Place
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8.22California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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10.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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9.39University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay1.350.0%1st Place
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13.43University of California at Davis0.120.0%1st Place
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12.98California State University Monterey Bay0.320.0%1st Place
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5.95Stanford University3.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Soper | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Sean Kelly | 15.2% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 11.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Shevitz | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 18.2% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Hatton | 22.7% | 19.3% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lazzaro | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Bradley Schoch | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 10.1% | 3.5% |
| Erik Lund | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| Mickail Murawski | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% |
| Kellsy Panno | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 18.2% | 15.0% | 7.8% |
| Christopher Hagerman | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 47.6% |
| Janet Rumsey | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 26.0% | 33.6% |
| Eliza Richartz | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.