Race 4A

admiral-alymer

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Lyle Fielding 5.8% 6.7% 6.7% 7.2% 6.8% 9.9% 9.2% 12.2% 15.8% 15.6% 3.8% 0.3%
Tyler Rice 10.2% 13.5% 9.7% 10.7% 10.7% 12.3% 9.7% 8.9% 8.8% 4.5% 1.0% 0.0%
Sarah Fiske 5.6% 5.8% 5.1% 6.1% 7.6% 6.1% 8.8% 11.1% 15.3% 22.6% 5.5% 0.4%
William Hutchings 11.6% 12.4% 13.5% 12.2% 10.3% 11.8% 9.3% 7.2% 7.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.0%
Michael Sturges 6.0% 7.7% 5.9% 9.4% 7.5% 9.1% 10.4% 11.6% 12.3% 15.7% 4.0% 0.4%
Stephanie Hudson 15.1% 13.4% 12.9% 12.9% 11.2% 11.3% 8.2% 6.2% 4.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Emily Billing 13.3% 11.3% 12.1% 9.4% 12.3% 10.8% 9.6% 9.9% 6.5% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Matthew Schon 13.7% 11.7% 12.4% 10.6% 10.6% 8.7% 9.7% 10.2% 5.8% 5.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Christopher Price 8.0% 8.3% 11.0% 9.9% 10.7% 10.7% 11.4% 10.3% 10.4% 8.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Ian Towill 9.7% 8.5% 9.8% 10.4% 11.3% 8.7% 11.9% 10.3% 9.8% 8.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Tim Dexter 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 3.9% 33.7% 57.6%
Paul Hildebrand 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 2.3% 4.1% 46.9% 41.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.