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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.35+2.25vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+0.83vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.27+2.67vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.37vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+3.20vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.61-1.10vs Predicted
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7University of Texas0.19+1.71vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.09+1.11vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.66-1.57vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.66+1.06vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-3.13vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-0.61vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.81+0.41vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.50-6.14vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-1.60-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.25University of Hawaii2.350.2%1st Place
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2.83Stanford University2.550.3%1st Place
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5.67University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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5.37University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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8.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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4.9California Poly Maritime Academy1.610.1%1st Place
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8.71University of Texas0.190.0%1st Place
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9.11University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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7.43University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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7.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.41California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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7.86University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.93University of Oregon-1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Patton | 23.4% | 21.8% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Schiffman | 30.8% | 22.4% | 17.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Justin Zmina | 8.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Will Cornell | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 8.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 17.3% | 8.9% |
| Olivia Feito | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 24.2% | 44.6% |
| Noah Barton | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 25.0% | 34.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.