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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+1.79vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.50+5.52vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.61+1.64vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.27+1.60vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.35-1.76vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.09+2.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.72+3.86vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-3.88vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.02-0.83vs Predicted
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11University of Texas0.19-2.45vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.98vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-5.21vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.81-0.92vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-2.37-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.79Stanford University2.550.3%1st Place
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7.52University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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4.64California Poly Maritime Academy1.610.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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3.24University of Hawaii2.350.2%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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10.86University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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5.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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9.17University of California at Berkeley-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.55University of Texas0.190.0%1st Place
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11.02University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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13.08California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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13.81University of Oregon-2.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Schiffman | 30.6% | 24.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Justin Zmina | 10.8% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 23.0% | 20.6% | 18.1% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 6.1% |
| Max Case | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.6% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Berwick | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 21.7% | 15.4% | 4.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Feito | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 32.0% | 29.9% |
| Katy Priest | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 8.5% | 20.6% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.