Race 5B

fall-fury

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kate Hennig 10.0% 11.7% 11.2% 10.8% 9.9% 9.4% 9.3% 8.1% 8.0% 6.2% 3.4% 1.9% 0.2%
Nigel Yu 9.8% 10.9% 10.3% 9.6% 11.5% 11.8% 9.1% 8.1% 8.1% 4.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale 7.8% 8.9% 7.8% 8.8% 8.8% 7.6% 9.4% 10.2% 10.4% 9.6% 6.3% 3.4% 0.8%
Cole Abbott 8.8% 7.8% 9.3% 9.7% 7.6% 9.2% 9.8% 9.8% 10.2% 8.1% 6.2% 2.9% 0.5%
Marissa Tegeder 14.2% 14.0% 12.7% 11.5% 10.9% 9.8% 8.8% 7.8% 4.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Fergus Munro 12.8% 10.7% 11.3% 11.1% 11.4% 10.5% 9.2% 7.8% 6.0% 4.9% 2.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Connor Bricco 1.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 3.6% 4.5% 6.3% 9.9% 15.3% 23.5% 22.7%
Nok In Chan 10.2% 9.0% 10.9% 9.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.9% 9.4% 8.4% 7.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Brittany Shabino 13.2% 12.8% 10.4% 11.6% 10.5% 10.7% 9.2% 7.6% 6.5% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Jacob Hsia 3.7% 4.0% 5.5% 5.1% 5.4% 5.9% 7.6% 8.3% 11.0% 13.6% 15.0% 10.2% 4.6%
Lawrence Busse 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.5% 7.2% 9.2% 16.4% 23.6% 18.9%
Andrew Down 4.8% 4.6% 5.1% 6.2% 7.1% 7.7% 7.6% 9.8% 9.7% 13.2% 11.7% 9.0% 3.5%
Brady Boland 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 5.8% 10.4% 19.5% 47.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.