Race 11B

fall-fury

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Fergus Munro 11.3% 10.9% 10.0% 11.9% 9.6% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 6.8% 5.3% 3.6% 1.5% 0.1%
Marissa Tegeder 13.2% 11.9% 11.9% 11.1% 10.9% 9.3% 9.2% 8.2% 6.2% 5.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Seamus Hendrickson 18.8% 17.6% 15.9% 13.2% 9.2% 8.3% 6.8% 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Kate Hennig 8.6% 9.4% 9.3% 10.2% 10.1% 9.4% 10.1% 9.6% 8.6% 7.7% 4.5% 2.1% 0.5%
Cole Abbott 7.9% 8.1% 9.0% 7.3% 9.0% 9.3% 8.7% 11.0% 10.9% 8.5% 7.0% 2.7% 0.5%
Brittany Shabino 12.2% 11.1% 10.4% 11.0% 12.4% 11.0% 9.8% 8.2% 5.5% 4.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
Jacob Hsia 4.0% 3.2% 4.3% 5.3% 5.1% 6.2% 7.2% 8.2% 10.9% 11.6% 16.5% 13.4% 3.8%
Nok In Chan 7.8% 9.2% 10.5% 9.2% 8.8% 10.0% 10.3% 8.8% 9.5% 8.3% 5.3% 1.9% 0.3%
Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale 5.8% 7.6% 8.3% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 10.1% 10.3% 7.9% 3.4% 0.9%
Andrew Down 4.5% 5.3% 4.3% 6.3% 7.2% 7.8% 7.0% 8.9% 9.5% 13.0% 13.9% 9.2% 2.9%
Ella Sligh 3.6% 3.2% 3.9% 4.2% 5.7% 5.9% 7.0% 7.8% 11.1% 13.2% 17.0% 12.7% 4.7%
Brady Boland 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 4.5% 5.8% 9.0% 25.1% 41.2%
Leo Barch 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 1.8% 3.2% 6.1% 8.8% 26.4% 44.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.