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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.40+7.70vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+4.34vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.70+1.44vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.28+5.23vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.52+3.44vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.00+4.25vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.16+2.60vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-2.72vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-2.16vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.24-0.51vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.04-4.27vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.93-4.83vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.73-5.07vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.44-5.32vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.7College of Charleston1.400.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.44Bowdoin College2.700.2%1st Place
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9.23Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.44Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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10.25Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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9.6Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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5.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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9.49University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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6.73Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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7.17Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.93Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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8.68Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiera Oreardon | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 16.8% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Meredith Broadus | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.1% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| Emily Bornarth | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Libby Redmond | 7.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.